EUR/USD Forecast Ahead of U.S CPI Data


The price action indicates that market players are covering shorts while adjusting positions as they wait for Wednesday’s United States consumer inflation data.

The Euro edges high against the United States dollar on Monday. That’s as the currency recuperated from losses incurred after Friday’s massive the United States labor market report.

Meanwhile, the price action shows traders covering shorts & adjusting positions before Wednesday’s United States CPI report, which might offer clarity about Fed’s upcoming steps.

While publishing this blog, EUR/USD changes hands at $1.02125, gaining +0.34%. Friday’s sessions saw Invest CurrencyShares (FXE) settling at $94.02, dropping 0.69%.

Friday’s higher-than-anticipated United States employment numbers saw the dollar skyrocketing against most leading currencies as market players trusted the data indicated more aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight inflation.

Meanwhile, the Euro Zone’s investor morale remained unaltered in August compared to the previous month, with a brief surge that was too slight to erase recession fears (survey).

Euro Zone’s Sentix’s index increased to -25.2 pts from July’s -26.4. A Reuter’s census had suggested -24.7 for August.

Daily Chart Tech Analysis

The daily chart shows an upside trend. Meanwhile, a move through 1.0294 will confirm the pair’s uptrend. On the other side, a drop beneath 1.0097 will shift the primary bias to the downside.

Also, the minor trend remained elevated. Moving past 1.0254 will suggest buyers’ return. However, dropping under 1.0123 will shift the near-term bias to down.

Furthermore, 1.0097 – 1.0294 represents a minor range. For now, EUR/USD straddles pivot at 1.0196. downside actions will secure possible support at the near-term retracement region at 1.0123 – 1.0083.

Upside tendencies have the closest resistance at the near-term 50% mark at 1.0284, beyond which the Forex will encounter the hurdle at the 1.0363 – 1.0460 territory.

Daily Chart Tech Prediction

Trader response to the 1.0196-pivot will likely determine EUR/USD’s upcoming direction.

Bullish Case

Sustained action beyond 1.0196 will confirm buyers’ presence. Enough upside strength will mean testing the 1.0254 minor top before EUR/USD explores the 1.0284 – 1.0284 resistance cluster.

Bearish Case

Movements beneath 1.0196 will confirm selling tendencies. That might catalyze a dip into 1.0123 – 1.0083.

Meanwhile, the dominant upward trend will likely attract buyers after a retracement zone test. Failure to do that will translate to downsides.